服务业对外直接投资的出口效应——基于我国微观企业的研究

文章基于我国服务业上市企业数据，采用多维固定效应模型，探讨和分析了我国服务业OFDI对服务贸易出口的影响，经研究发现：第一，服务业OFDI通过吸收东道国先进技术经验提升企业生产率水平和避开东道国服务贸易壁垒降低贸易成本，促进企业服务贸易出口增长；第二，我国服务业OFDI显著提升了企业服务贸易出口的二元边际，具体而言，整体上服务业OFDI会促进服务贸易出口增长4.82%，同时会提升企业的出口概率；第三，我国服务业OFDI"出口效应"存在明显的区域和行业的异质性，具体表现为：生产性服务业和消费性服务业OFDI存在显著的"出口效应"，其OFDI带动服务贸易出口的增长分别为5.68%和3.52%，而公共服务业则不存在显著的"出口效应"；东部地区和中部地区服务业OFDI存在显著的"出口效应"，其OFDI带动区域服务贸易出口的增长分别为4.97%和3.56%，而西部地区则不存在显著的"出口效应"。上述研究结论对化解我国服务贸易出口增长困境和完善服务业对外直接投资政策机制具有一定的启示意义。     

Do foreign exchange forecasters apply asymmetric loss functions? Evidence from three major exchange rates

This article investigates which type of loss function is consistent with the hypothesis that major exchange rate forecasts, i.e. the euro, the British pound, and the Japanese yen vis-à-vis the US dollar, are rational. We apply a comprehensive data set, which also allows us to examine different forecast horizons and heterogeneity of forecasters.     

庚子赔款的债务化偿付及其影响

庚子赔款是中国近代史上最大一笔赔款,也是以长期债务形式体现的赔款。本文对庚子赔款的债务化偿付安排、利率水平、支付流程及经济影响等进行比较分析。发现:(1)庚子赔款本金4.5亿两,是清政府 1903 年财政收入的 4.33倍,但通过债务化偿付,每年支付赔款占财政收入比重逐步下降;(2)按购买力折算,庚子赔款本金约占1900年中国GDP的2.1%;(3)与当时主要国家长期债务利率相比,庚子赔款4%的利率属于中等水平;(4)将庚子赔款与德国“一战”赔款进行比较,发现赔款本金和占经济总量比重,中国低于德国,但中国每年支付赔款的财政压力高于德国;(5)庚子赔款偿付对近代中国的财税金融产生深刻影响,外籍海关税务司借机成为独立于中国政府的“第二财政”,外商银行藉此强化其“隐性中央银行” 地位,赔款还催生了货币流通的“新周期” 和“新危机”。总体上,赔款的债务化偿付安排不仅受政治外交形势主导,也与金融机构特别是银行跨国经营存在密切联系。赔款的经济影响不仅取决于偿付总量,也取决于经济治理能力和财税金融制度。国家财税金融制度落后,则受到冲击较大。     

提高出口退税能够“稳就业”和“稳外贸”吗?

近年来,全球贸易保护主义抬头加剧了各国之间的贸易摩擦。本文以中美贸易为例,探讨中国出口退税政策在稳就业、稳外贸以及应对贸易摩擦中的作用机制。首先基于1994-2020年季度数据发现:中国就业的波动较平稳;净出口则呈现高波动特征;中国就业和净出口呈现弱顺周期。这些周期特征与其他国家存在显著差异。其次构建了一个含有不完全金融市场和价格不完全传递的对称两国开放经济DSGE模型,数值模拟发现:在本国出口退税冲击和它国技术冲击下,模型能够较好地拟合中国就业和净出口的周期特征,其中财富效应和由贸易条件变化引起的支出转移效应是主要的内在传导机制。借助模型对中美贸易摩擦的反事实实验发现:中国单方面提高1%出口退税时,中国就业增长0.05%,净出口增长0.28%,呈现较强持续性,提高出口退税能够稳就业和稳外贸;当中国提高1%出口退税和美国提高1%进口关税时,中国就业增长0.03%,净出口增长0.16%,呈现较强持续性,勒纳中性不成立,此时出口退税在稳就业和稳外贸中的作用尽管有所削弱,但依然有效。     

Business-to-business selling in the post-COVID-19 era: Developing an adaptive sales force

The COVID-19 pandemic has changed how salespeople interact with customers and with business-to-business (B2B) organizations. Organizations must confront the shifts in how their salespeople operate. Recent research recommends firms develop an adaptive sales force to address disruptions like a pandemic and be prepared to meet such challenges in the future. Based on interviews with marketing and sales executives, we explore how firms have responded to these interconnected changes during the COVID-19 pandemic and offer insight into best practices deployed across industries.     

Foreign investment regulation and firm productivity: Granular evidence from Indonesia

When regulating foreign direct investment (FDI), countries often face a trade-off between pursuing national policy interests and suffering efficiency losses due to FDI restrictions. We demonstrate the presence of this trade-off in the case of a protectionist FDI policy in Indonesia. Using a yearly census of Indonesian manufacturing firms from 2000 to 2015, we link product-level changes in binding FDI regulation due to major regulatory tightening to changes in firm-level productivity. Controlling for an extensive set of fixed effects as well as potential political economy drivers of regulation, we show that a tightening of the regulatory environment was successful in reducing foreign capital reliance among regulated firms, and led to increases in FDI among non-regulated firms producing the same product. Despite compensating increases in domestic capital, regulated firms experienced relative productivity losses. This points towards either a less efficient allocation of domestic capital or a general inferiority of domestic capital as compared to foreign investments.     

Exploring the representativeness of the M5 competition data

The main objective of the M5 competition, which focused on forecasting the hierarchical unit sales of Walmart, was to evaluate the accuracy and uncertainty of forecasting methods in the field to identify best practices and highlight their practical implications. However, can the findings of the M5 competition be generalized and exploited by retail firms to better support their decisions and operation? This depends on the extent to which M5 data is sufficiently similar to unit sales data of retailers operating in different regions selling different product types and considering different marketing strategies. To answer this question, we analyze the characteristics of the M5 time series and compare them with those of two grocery retailers, namely Corporación Favorita and a major Greek supermarket chain, using feature spaces. Our results suggest only minor discrepancies between the examined data sets, supporting the representativeness of the M5 data.     

Migrants and multinational firms: The role of institutional affinity and connectedness in FDI

We examine how, and to what extent, migrants in a host country attract foreign direct investment (FDI) from firms based in their country of origin (CO). Introducing the notion of institutional affinity, we argue that increased institutional affinity and increased connectedness of institutional environments of migrants’ CO and country of residence, make a location attractive to CO firms. Empirical analysis of FDI and migration panel data shows that in addition to the traditional factors influencing FDI patterns, there is a collective migrant effect on FDI, and this effect is statistically significant and economically meaningful for migrants from developing countries.     

The function-specific microfoundations of dynamic capabilities in cross-border mergers and acquisitions

In mergers and acquisitions, the acquiring firm must combine two firms’ resources and capabilities so that the outcome yields value. In individual firms, the marketing & sales, and R&D functions have typically developed intertwined and complex relationships over time. These multifaceted dependencies may obscure the integration of the firms and their functions. In order to reveal to what extent cross-functional relationships determine the success or failure of an acquisitions, we have made one of the first attempts to study merging firms’ function-specific capabilities, underlying microfoundations, and their cross-functional relationships during the integration process—instead of focusing on acquisition capabilities as such. We use longitudinal data from two cross-border acquisitions between US and Finnish SMEs. Our results indicate that major differences between merging firms’ cross-functional microfoundations—that is, their structures, processes, routines, and skills—might either enforce or erode the seemingly promising synergies at the product and market levels, depending on managerial awareness of their nature.     

Steering the Sales Force for New Product Selling: Why Is it Different,and How Can Firms Motivate Different Sales Reps?

This study investigates how to direct and assemble the sales force for new product selling. In a first step, the authors draw on self‐determination theory to explore and empirically test a threefold conceptualization of motivation. Results provide insights into why sales force steering works differently in the new product selling context. Specifically, results show that for new products’ financial performance, internalized new product selling motivation is more important than intrinsic and controlled motivation. In a second step, the authors show how firms can motivate different sales reps to achieve higher financial performance of new products. In doing so, they examine the interaction effects of sales reps’ predispositions and widespread firm‐steering instruments on new products’ financial performance. Results reveal that the new product sales orientation of the bonus strengthens the positive relationship between sales reps’ performance predisposition and new product financial performance but weakens the relationship between sales reps’ learning predisposition and financial new product performance. Moreover, results reveal that the new product sales orientation of the periodic review strengthens the positive relationship between sales reps’ learning predisposition and financial new product performance. A post hoc analysis shows that a differentiated steering approach that matches appropriate steering instruments with sales reps’ varying predispositions substantially enhances reps’ financial new product performance.